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Robert "Vörös" McCracken (born 17 August 1971, Chicago, Illinois) is a baseball sabermetrician. ''Vörös'' is a nickname from his Hungarian heritage. He is widely recognized for his pioneering work on Defense Independent Pitching Statistics (DIPS). ==DIPS== McCracken first published his ideas about DIPS in 1999 on the rec.sports.baseball newsgroup on Usenet.〔(McCracken's first "defensive independent pitching" post )〕 He also effectively named the new concept of "defense independent pitching" with that publication: "I've been working on a pitching evaluation tool and thought I'd post it here to get some feedback. I call it 'Defensive Independent Pitching' and what it does is evaluate a pitcher base() strictly on the statistics his defense has no ability to affect...".〔For an extended overview of the development of DIPS, see Dan Basco and Michael Davies, "The Many Flavors of DIPS: A History and an Overview," Society for American Baseball Research, ''Baseball Research Journal,'' (Fall 2010, Vol. 32, Issue 2 ). (2-26-2013 )〕 His findings implied that major league pitchers had little control over the outcome of balls put into play against them and specifically that the percentage of balls put into play against a particular pitcher that fell for hits did not correlate across seasons. This implied that elements beyond the pitcher's control, including defense, ballpark, weather and randomness, had significant effects upon his performance. McCracken's "Pitchers and Defense: How Much Control Do Hurlers Have?" was published on the Baseball Prospectus website in 2001〔(Baseball Prospectus initial article on DIPS )〕〔(Baseball Prospectus discussion of DIPS )〕 and was picked up on by baseball researchers and ESPN baseball writer and analyst Rob Neyer.〔(Rob Neyer's ESPN discussion of BP DIPS article )〕 After explaining McCracken's findings, including reporting some of his own calculations from the previous years' pitching statistics and describing the aspects of DIPS that were most original, Neyer concluded: "And it seems to me that anyone who wants to project pitcher performance should read McCracken's article, because it'll blow your mind." In his book ''The Numbers Game,'' Alan Schwarz writes that McCracken told him “all hell broke loose” after Neyer's column appeared.〔Alan Schwarz,''The Numbers Game: Baseball’s Lifelong Fascination with Statistics'' (New York: St. Martin's, 2005)(ISBN 0-312-32223-2).〕 McCracken received nearly 2,000 emails in the next couple of days and thousands more in the ensuing months. Sabermetrician Craig Wright agreed that hit rate is not as heavily influenced by the pitcher as is commonly believed, but at the same time concluded "... some () emphasize pitches that are tough to hit sharply enough to get your share of hits on balls in play. I don't think the latter is a primary way for pitchers to distinguish themselves from others, but I do believe it is a more significant factor for some groups than others." He specifically cited two groups, knuckleball pitchers and flyball pitchers, as examples of those who tend to allow fewer hits on balls in the field of play.〔(Craig Wright's reaction to DIPS )〕 Subsequent independent research by Phil Birnbaum, Clifford Blau and Tom Tippett confirmed Wright's findings, but Wright still praises McCracken as "... ''the'' guy who really got people to understand that most folks overestimate the pitcher's ability to influence the number of hits that result from balls batted into the field of play."〔(Birnbaum's comment on DIPS )〕 Bill James also expressed some skepticism but recognized the potential value of McCracken's findings if further research bore them out. He argued that "the research really should be done, for several reasons. First, if McCracken turns out to be correct, this has important consequences, even allowing us, to a certain extent, to predict movements in pitcher's records. . . ." In his ''New Historical Baseball Abstract'' in 2001, James acknowledged that McCracken was correct, that the results were significant, and that James himself felt "stupid for not having realized it 30 years ago."〔Bill James, ''The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract'' (New York: Free Press, 2001): 885.〕 Rob Neyer also noted the impact of McCracken's discovery on James' subsequent work.〔Rob Neyer, "Teams Have Most Success in 'Runs Prevented'," (ESPN.com July 3, 2002 ).〕 McCracken's discovery and its influence on baseball analysis is outlined in ''Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game'' by Michael Lewis. McCracken continued to refine his new statistic, including addressing the issue of knuckleballers in his DIPS 2.0 in 2002. He published DIPS statistical results as well as extensions and improvements to his initial formulas in other forums, including ''Baseball Primer'' (now ''Baseball Think Factory'').〔(McCracken on DIPS 2.0 on BaseballPrimer.com ).〕〔(More McCracken on DIPS in Primer ).〕〔(Jay Jaffe on DIPS in Futility Infielder ).〕 Baseball researchers have continued to evaluate and to propose refinements to DIPS, such as Tom Tippett in his 2003 article "Can Pitchers Prevent Hits on Balls in Play?".〔(Tom Tippett on DIPS in Diamond-Mind.com ).〕 抄文引用元・出典: フリー百科事典『 ウィキペディア（Wikipedia）』 ■ウィキペディアで「Voros McCracken」の詳細全文を読む スポンサード リンク
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